Virus hits hospital chief [ SARS ]

The chief executive of Prince of Wales Hospital has been struck down by viral pneumonia, it was announced yesterday, as the deadly disease continued its relentless spread into the community with 58 new cases.

Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank and computer company Hewlett-Packard sent staff home yesterday after cases were found at their offices, and Bank of China has temporarily closed one of its branches for the same reason.

At least one of these cases was linked to disease-hit Amoy Gardens in Ngau Tau Kok, where an additional 34 cases were confirmed yesterday, taking the total in a single apartment block to 56.

The new cases came as the international spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), hammered airlines, hotels and tourism-related industries, with airlines cutting flights and refusing ill passengers.

Fung Hong, who is also hospital chief executive for New Territories East, was admitted to Prince of Wales Hospital on Thursday night after coming down with high fever and other symptoms. He is the second high-profile health executive to be afflicted, after Hospital Authority chief executive William Ho. Both are in stable condition.

The government said that at 1pm yesterday a total of 425 viral pneumonia patients had been admitted to public hospitals. The 58 additional patients reported yesterday included four healthcare workers and 34 patients from Amoy Gardens. The remaining 20 were new patients and contacts of patients.

There were 45 patients in intensive care, while 25 had been released from hospital. The death toll remained unchanged at 11.

The fifth floor of HSBC's headquarters in Central was closed and 26 staff members were sent home on seven days' leave after a teller came down with pneumonia symptoms.

``The whole building was disinfected and the fifth floor will be closed Saturday for thorough cleaning,'' spokesman Gareth Hewett said.

Two other bank staff, from Central and Mong Kok, are in hospital with influenza-like symptoms. General manager Raymond Or said that if they were confirmed with the pneumonia, affected offices would immediately be closed.

The Bank of China closed its Fung Tak Road branch in Tsz Wan Shan after a staff member who lived in Block E at Amoy Gardens fell ill. The staff were granted paid leave until April 6 and the branch, after disinfection, will reopen on Monday with staff seconded from elsewhere.

Hewlett-Packard shut one of its main Hong Kong offices and sent home 300 workers after an employee was suspected of having the disease.

The Bank of East Asia branch in Ap Lei Chau, which was closed on Wednesday after an employee was sent to hospital with pneumonia symptoms, reopened yesterday. Spokeswoman Selina Tong said no other staff were ill.

Among the new confirmed cases reported yesterday was a female student from the Chinese University of Hong Kong. She is in her first year of electrical engineering and is believed to have contracted the virus from outside the campus.

All eight universities have suspended classes until April 7, while other post-graduate institutions including Shue Yan College and Chu Hai College have decided to remain closed for the same period.

Meanwhile, a government spokesman confirmed that an employee of the Companies Registry on the 13th floor of the Queensway government offices was among the latest confirmed victims. The employee has been on sick leave since falling ill a week ago and no other staff member has been affected.

Princess Margaret Hospital in Lai King, which will treat all new SARS patients from tomorrow by government decree, has closed its emergency unit to redeploy staff.

Thanks for the statistics. This disease is clearly no laughing matter. Nor is it a trumped up scare story. It is certainly not a clever way to sell more newspapers.

It is important to understand that most of the numbers being bandied around in typical news reports simply add up the total number of real/suspected victims, and then compare that to the total of deaths. The resulting number seems to be a low enough percentage to keep people from getting too alarmed (which may be why they report it this way).

However, the REAL statistics have to be based on what happens to an existing group of patients after the disease has run its course through the group. The statistics you provided for Hong Kong can be used as a starting point for this type of analysis.

Based on your statistics, if all 45 in intensive care die, and none of the others, the mortality rate would be 13.2%. I don't know what their chances actually are when this level of care is available, but ALL of the intensive care patients would die if this level of care were not available.

Hence, a starting point estimate for the mortality rate if the medical system is overwhelmed can be assumed to be 13.2%. This may be skewed upwards by under-reporting of mild cases (meaning 13.2% would be too high).

Not everyone who is exposed will actually get the disease. For instance, the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918/19 supposedly afflicted only 25% of the U.S. population.

So... Applying a set of preliminary assumptions:
1. 25% of the population eventually gets SARS.
2. Enough people are hospitalized to overwhelm the medical system.
3. 50% of the current cases are missed because they are too mild to need urgent care. This would mean the 13.2% mortality figure above should actually be 6.6%.
4. Simple Calculation: 25% times 6.6% times 280,000,000 people gives 4.6 million deaths in the United States.

Part of the way I make my living involves a LOT of mathematical analysis. The above assumptions and resulting estimate are all supportable, but that does NOT mean this is what will actually happen.

REPEAT: I am NOT saying this will happen. But it is easy to see why the medical establishment is taking this thing so seriously. The best time to stop this is NOW.

Half measures at this point are a very bad idea.

Previously, only the doctor, his wife and a traveling companion on the Frankfurt flight were diagnosed with SARS (I'm not sure about the companion, he may have been just quarantined).

CNN reported yesterday that a flight attendant on that flight had been hospitalized with SARS.

http://www.cnn.com/2003/HEALTH/03/28/asia.sars/index.html

Of course, we weren't told until after she had been released from the hospital! How many other passengers on that flight are in the hospital? Medical privacy does somewhat limit public information but anonymous reports should be made public. We need to know how much of a threat air travel poses.

If a stewardess could get the bug on a flight then I'd say all passengers are at risk when a SARS infection is on board.

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